Saturday, January 30, 2021

Project Titan: Everything we know about Apple's self-driving car

Project Titan: Everything we know about Apple's self-driving car


A couple of years ago, it looked like Apple had given up on the car plans, but now new information is coming that indicates that the project is continuing to a very high degree.

Update (2021-01-30): 

Tasks: Hyundai executives are hesitant about Apple collaboration

Now comes new information about the alleged collaboration between Apple and Hyundai. Earlier reports claimed that Hyundai would manufacture an electric car for Apple, but Reuters reports that Hyundai is unsure whether a collaboration with Apple is good for its own brand.

The main problem should be that Hyundai does not want to become a contracted subcontractor for another brand.

- We are not a company that manufactures cars for others. It's not like working with Apple always produces good results, an anonymous Hyundai boss told Reuters.

- Hyundai wants to be more than just a Foxconn (which manufactures iPhone for Apple, editor's note).

At the same time, Hyundai will have some overcapacity in its factories, something that collaboration with Apple could solve.

According to Reuters, the talks between Apple and Hyundai should have started already in 2018, but now the prospects for the collaboration should have been a bit shattered.

Apple has not commented on Reuters' information.


Update (2021-01-11)

Apple's car with Hyundai can start production in 2024

Until March 2021, Apple and Hyundai will sign a collaboration to develop their own self-driving electric car that will begin production in the US around 2024, reports Korea IT News, via Reuters.

The South Korean carmaker confirmed on Friday that the company was in talks with Apple and several other companies about possible collaborations regarding self-driving cars. However, neither Apple nor Hyundai have commented on the latest information from Korea IT News.

An earlier version of the Korea IT News article also stated that there are plans to build the cars in the Kia Motors factory (Kia Motors is owned by Hyundai) in the state of Georgia and to invest in a new factory later on. This is to be able to build 100,000 cars around 2024 and then have an annual production of 400,000 cars.

According to Korea IT News, a beta version of Apple's car will be released next year.

Update (2021-01-08):

Hyundai confirms calls

Following a report from Korean Hankyung claiming that Apple has begun negotiations with Hyundai for the production of the company's scrambled electric car, Hyundai has surprisingly confirmed the talks to CNBC.

- We understand that Apple is in discussions with a number of global car manufacturers, including Hyundai Motor. As the discussions are at an early stage, nothing has been decided, a spokesperson for CNBC's Chery Kang says.

The Hankyung report claims that the car will be launched in 2027, which is consistent with information from both Bloomberg and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Apple does not manufacture any of its products itself, so the company has no plans to build a car factory is hardly surprising.

Update (2020-12-28):

Analyst: Apple's car may be delayed until 2028

Just before Christmas, the news agency Reuters claimed that Apple intends to launch a self-driving car in 2024, but far from everyone thinks that information is correct.

According to a new report from the well-informed analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, quoted by Macrumors, it is more likely that the launch will take another year or two, perhaps even 2028 or later.

Kuo also points out that it is far from certain that the car will be a success, not least when competitors such as Tesla have a big lead. The key to success is spelled AI and the question is whether Apple has time to collect enough data until the launch.

In this context, it can be pointed out that questions have also been raised about the new mono cell battery that is said to be underway. According to Tesla's CEO Elon Musk, the battery, as described by Reuters, is an "electrochemical impossibility".

Update (2020-12-22):

Reuters: Apple wants to start building cars with new battery technology in 2024

According to the news agency Reuters, Apple has decided to build a self-driving car and the goal is for it to be launched in 2024.

The large traction patch is a new type of battery that will provide a longer range and be safer compared to today's batteries.

According to an anonymous person that Reuters has spoken to, the new battery technology should be as revolutionary as the first model of iPhone.

Apple has been working on its car project since 2014, but there have been many different bids about what it's really about.

If you want to know more about "Project Titan", just scroll down.

Previously (2020-02-25):

Project Titan: Everything we know about Apple's self-driving car

Patent applications, employment, secret subsidiaries, and tests on public roads of systems for self-driving cars all point to something being developed in Cupertino (or perhaps more precisely in San Jose where Apple rents offices and according to rumors has placed the project).

Data from Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Business Insider, and other newspapers have come in waves and it seems that Apple has not really been able to decide what the goal should be: an entire car, or just the technology for a self-driving car made by someone else?

The people behind Apple's car

Several times Apple has slowed down Project Titan, laid off some of the staff, and changed its mind. In September 2016, the New York Times wrote that dozens of employees were allowed to leave, but that the project still had around 1,000 employees, and in January 2019, around 200 people should have been allowed to leave.

Doug Field
Doug Field, according to information current head of Project Titan.

Apple has recruited a lot of staff from existing car manufacturers such as Ford, General Motors, Volkswagen, and not least Tesla. But also from companies in other industries such as Nvidia, Blackberry, Texas Instruments, and Bosch. From Tesla come, among others, engineers such as David Nelson and John Ireland, recruiter Lauren Ciminera, car industry veteran Chris Porritt, and Steve MacManus who worked with the technical side of exteriors and interiors.

Who is in charge of the project is also said to have changed. It started with former Ford engineer Steve Zadesky. In 2016, retired Bob Mansfield was lured back to lead "special projects" which was interpreted by many as Project Titan. In August 2018, Apple recruited Doug Field from Tesla to take over the project and as far as we know he is still the manager. He previously worked with Machårdvara at Apple.

Car or not?

One of the questions that have hung around since the first rumors are whether Apple will build an entire car or whether it is instead an ai-pilot that can end up in other manufacturers' cars.

In 2017, it looked like Apple had at least for the time being put the plans for a full-fledged car on ice, but in 2018 came new information that this is, after all, what Apple is planning. Often well-informed analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has said he believes the plan is a launch between 2023 and 2025.

Several hires, such as Steve MacManus and Doug Field, also point out that it really is a car Apple is developing.

Car interior

A completely different rumor came from Manager Magazin and claimed that it is not a car Apple is working on but a minibus for carpooling or taxi traffic, which would first start driving Apple employees to work and between the company's various offices. The New York Times also wrote about this in 2018, claiming that Apple already has a name for the service: PAIL ("Palo Alto to Infinite Loop"). According to the newspaper, the buses themselves will be rebuilt Volkswagen T6.

The technology behind Apple Car

Apple is definitely developing technology for cars, it is very clear. The company has filed a large number of patent applications relating to self-driving systems, safety and the connection between the iPhone and the car.

One of the most interesting is a technology that will help other road users understand what the self-driving car will do. Apple points out in the patent that how people behave behind the wheel is useful information for other drivers, but since self-driving cars have no visible driver, that information is missing.

Patent

Apple's solution is an electronic sign that shows what the car plans to do, for example, "turn right 500 meters" or "continue for 25 kilometers". The sign can also be used to warn others of dangers the car has discovered that may not be visible, such as a car accident later on.

In June 2019, Apple acquired Drive.ai, a small business started by MIT students who developed self-driving minibusses that were in operation in several Texas cities. The company's operations were shut down and Apple absorbed its employees.

Cars on the roads

The most important component in Apple's car is probably the ai that will drive, and there the company has come so far that it has a number of test cars out on the roads in the home state of California. Apple received permission from the state Department of Transportation in 2017 and registered 27 cars in January 2018. In September of the same year, the number was up to 70, more than all competitors except GM and Waymo (Google).

Apple test car

A leaked report in February 2019 showed that Apple's cars handed over to the human driver more often than all competitors' systems, but the very next day it emerged that the numbers can vary extremely much depending on how the companies calculate. Apple itself changed from reporting all the times the driver took over from the computer (for whatever reason) to only the times the driver took over to avoid an accident or a rule violation.

With the new way of counting, Apple is significantly better off with 3200 kilometers per intervention. But it is still a long way behind Waymo, which reported 17,950 kilometers per intervention.

Rearview mirror

When will Apple's car launch?

When it's done. When rumors of an Apple car began to appear, analysts and others speculated that the car would appear "no earlier than 2020", but given that we have not even seen a sketch of what the car might look like, the launch teaches - becomes reality - be far away yet.

Ming-Chi Kuo's guess is as we wrote above 2023–2025, but for a product that is so far in the future, it is hard to believe that his sources among Apple's subcontractors will have any further control. So we see it as a good guess from someone who has followed the company for a long time, but no more.

In fact, we simply have no idea when Apple's car may be fully developed. When it starts to take shape a little more and we start to see more concrete rumors, maybe we can make a better guess.

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